Methodology

This page explains how we define, collect, and present data on the AI for Bad.

Scope

We track AI companies that have materially benefited from the 2026 US-Iran war (Operation Epic Fury), which began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran.

"AI companies" includes:

Frontier AI model providers (LLM companies with Pentagon contracts)
Defense AI pure-plays (startups building military-specific AI)
Traditional defense primes with significant AI-enabled weapons/systems
Cloud/compute infrastructure providers powering military AI
Defense IT firms providing AI services to the military
Enterprise AI companies with active defense contracts
Autonomous drone and weapons manufacturers using AI

Inclusion Criteria

A company is included if it meets at least one of the following:

Confirmed DoD/Pentagon AI contract active during or awarded in connection with the conflict
Documented deployment of AI technology in Operation Epic Fury or supporting operations
Measurable stock price increase attributable to defense/war-related activity since Feb 28, 2026
Direct reporting by credible news outlets linking the company to war-related financial benefit

Data Sources

Data Point	Primary Source	Refresh Frequency
Pentagon contracts	USAspending.gov, DoD announcements	Weekly
Arms revenue	SIPRI Top 100 Database	Annually
Stock prices	Yahoo Finance, Google Finance	Daily (when site is updated)
Company revenue/earnings	SEC filings (EDGAR), earnings reports	Quarterly
Lobbying expenditures	OpenSecrets.org	Quarterly
Humanitarian donations	Company press releases, ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer	As reported
Conflict reporting	Al Jazeera, NPR, CNBC, MIT Technology Review, Defense One, Breaking Defense	As published

Key Metrics Explained

Profit / Contract Value

This represents the most relevant financial figure available for each company's defense-related AI activity. Depending on the company, this may be:

Contract value: The ceiling or awarded amount of specific Pentagon AI contracts
Total revenue: Annual defense revenue for companies where AI is deeply integrated into all products
Cumulative Pentagon contracts: Multi-year totals from Brown University's Costs of War project for major primes

Important caveat: For most companies, it is not possible to isolate exactly how much revenue is attributable to the Iran war specifically. Contract values represent ceilings (maximum possible), not necessarily amounts disbursed. We use the most conservative publicly available figure.

Humanitarian Donations

Verified donations to humanitarian organizations providing relief to civilians affected by the conflict. Sources include company press releases, foundation disclosures, and nonprofit filings. This figure may undercount private or anonymous giving.

Donation Verification: The $0 Finding

As of March 17, 2026, we conducted an exhaustive search across all 50 tracked companies for publicly disclosed humanitarian donations related to the US-Iran war. We found none.

Our search covered:

Company press releases and newsrooms for all 50 companies
Corporate foundation disclosures and annual giving reports
IFRC and Red Cross/Red Crescent corporate donor listings for the Iran Complex Emergency 2026 appeal
UNICEF, Doctors Without Borders, and other major relief organizations' donor acknowledgments
ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer for corporate foundation grants
News reporting from Al Jazeera, NPR, CNBC, and other major outlets

Notable context:

The Council on Foundations has noted that U.S. sanctions on Iran create legal complexity for direct giving, requiring OFAC-authorized channels. However, sanctions do not prevent donations to international organizations like the ICRC, UNICEF, or MSF that are providing relief.
Some companies (RTX, Lockheed Martin) have established general charitable programs, but none have announced Iran-specific humanitarian giving.
Several tracked companies (NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) have been focused on evacuating their own employees from the Middle East after Iran designated their regional offices as targets.

The $0 figure represents verified public data, not an assumption. We actively monitor for donation announcements and will update individual company entries the moment a verified contribution is identified. If you are aware of a donation we have missed, please contact us.

Gap

Calculated as: Gap = Profit/Contract Value − Verified Humanitarian Donations

The gap represents the difference between what a company has earned (or stands to earn) from the conflict and what it has publicly committed to humanitarian relief. A larger gap suggests less humanitarian commitment relative to financial benefit.

Modeling Approach

Our methodology is modeled on approaches used by established research organizations:

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute): Ranks companies by "arms revenue" from military-specific goods and services, using company annual reports, stock filings, and media reports. When companies don't disclose defense-specific revenue, SIPRI estimates based on contract awards and known programs.
Brown University's Costs of War Project: Tracks dollar value of Pentagon contracts awarded to each company using USAspending.gov and SEC filings. Their research found $2.4 trillion in Pentagon contracts from 2020-2024, with 25-33% going to just five companies.
OpenSecrets: Tracks lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions from the defense sector using lobbying disclosure filings and FEC campaign finance data.

Limitations

War-specific attribution is imprecise. Most companies do not break out revenue by specific conflict. The figures shown represent total defense-related financial activity, not Iran-war-only revenue.
Contract ceilings vs. actuals. Contract values shown are often maximum ceilings over multi-year periods. Actual disbursements may be lower.
Private companies. Many defense AI startups are private and do not publicly disclose revenue. We rely on contract announcements, funding rounds, and media reporting.
Donation undercounting. Companies may donate through corporate foundations, in-kind contributions, or private channels not captured in public records.
Stock-based estimates. For public companies, stock price gains since the war began are suggestive but not direct measures of war-related profit.

Update Schedule

This site is refreshed daily. Stock prices and contract announcements are updated as new data becomes available. Quarterly earnings data is updated when companies file with the SEC.

Contact

If you have corrections, updated donation data, or additional sourcing for any company listed, please reach out. Accuracy and fairness are our priority.

← Back to Tracker